West warns time is growing short for Iran nuclear deal, as talks pause again

With the pause of their eighth session of talks since early last year, representatives of Iran and global powers returned to their capitals over the weekend to consult about what European partners in the Iran nuclear deal called “the final stage” in negotiations over a U.S. return to the agreement.

© E.U. Delegation in Vienna/EEAS via Reuters European and Iranian negotiators wait for the start of a meeting in Vienna on Dec. 17 on reviving the 2015 nuclear accord.

Negotiators have said for the past month that only weeks remained before Iran’s nuclear program would advance so far beyond the parameters of the original 2015 accord that a return to its terms would be impossible. A senior State Department official said Monday that those weeks have now dwindled to only “a handful.”

“In other words, we will know sooner rather than later whether the United States is back in the JCPOA,” or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, “and Iran is back in fully implementing its obligations, or whether we are going to have to face a different reality of mounting tensions and crisis,” said the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity under rules set by the State Department.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said Monday that his government had presented the other signers of the deal, including Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, with a written initiative that, if accepted by Washington, could result in a viable agreement on the day they return to the talks in Vienna, according to Iranian media.

The United States, which withdrew from the agreement in 2018, after President Donald Trump called it “a bad deal” and promised to punish Tehran with “maximum pressure” sanctions, has not been a direct party to the talks, but exchanges positions with Iran through the Europeans.

The State Department official declined to comment on any Iranian proposals, saying that the U.S. position has been clear throughout the talks. The Biden administration has said it is prepared to lift all “nuclear-related sanctions” immediately if Iran returns to the nuclear restraints of the JCPOA.

“We’ve been at this now for roughly 10 months,” the official said. The last Vienna round, adjourned on Friday, “was among the most intensive to date. We made progress narrowing down the list of differences … that’s why now’s the time for political decision.”

The question is “whether Iran is prepared to make decisions … that’s the reason why negotiators have returned for consultations with leaderships,” the official said.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who spoke over the weekend with his Iranian counterpart, President Ebrahim Raisi, the official said, “conveyed [that there is] a significant opportunity, but there is also urgency.”

The official, who briefed reporters on the status of the talks, advised them to ignore media reports that the release of four Iranian Americans imprisoned in Iran was part of the negotiations, and stressed that talks over the detainees was separate from the nuclear discussions.

“I stress that any news, any information on what’s happening” regarding the prisoners “will come from this administration … and urge journalists and others not to pay credence to what they may see from other sources, particularly from Iranian sources.” Such reports, the official said, were only “adding to the cruelty on the families” of the detainees and “putting out false information.”

The official also denied Iranian reports that it might be willing to speak directly to the U.S. side as an agreement is near, although the United States has long said face-to-face conversations would enhance the process.

“It’s not a matter of asking Iran to do us a favor,” the official said. “If Iran doesn’t want to talk to us, that is their decision.” Direct talks should take place “as a favor to the process, if our goal is to reach agreement quickly.”

Citing room for “a lot of misunderstanding, misinformation and miscommunications,” the official said that direct talks were “not a magical solution. We still might find ourselves at an impasse.” But “it would be regrettable” if one reason they did not succeed was “an inability to sit down” together. “We’re not begging for a meeting … we just think it would be the logical step to take if in fact we are determined to get back into the deal … it’s simply common sense.”

Since the United States withdrew from the JCPOA, Iran has vastly expanded both the quantity and quality of uranium enrichment, far beyond its limits restricting it to small amounts of low enriched ore and strict international verification. The Iranians are now using sophisticated centrifuges and enriching up to 60 percent, just below the level where it is possible to have enough fissile material for a weapon. That has reduced their so-called “breakout time” from about a year under the JCPOA to what is now a matter of a few weeks, according to U.S. officials. Iran has said its nuclear program is designed only for peaceful purposes.

The basis of the negotiations is a return to “compliance for compliance” under the original terms of the agreement. Core issues are which sanctions, among the at least 1,500 imposed by Trump, the United States is prepared to end in exchange for Iran’s return to full and verifiable compliance.

The United States has said that only those sanctions related to nuclear issues should be eliminated, while those covering Iran’s support for proxy wars in the region and its missile development program can remain under the original deal, while Tehran has demanded, at least in public, that all be removed.

As the protracted talks have continued, there also have been disagreements over Iran’s compliance with the agreement’s verification measures. Iran has barred the International Atomic Energy Agency from access to some sites and cameras until, it says, a deal is completed.

If the negotiations are unsuccessful, “the future is not hard to divine,” the State Department official said. “Obviously, Iran’s nuclear program … would not be constrained” and could continue “at an alarming pace.” The United States and its partners would “have to fortify our response — economically, diplomatically and otherwise.”